how to determine when values are outside of holt-winters confidence band?

Asked by Miguel DeAvila

Is there a mechanism to determine when the actual values are outside of the holt-winters confidence band?

I'd like to use this as a trigger for alerting.

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Michael Leinartas (mleinartas) said :

There's no complete way to do this in Graphite itself. You'll want to have something hit Graphite URLs and use one of the alternative 'format' options (json, csv, etc) and do comparisons on the data from the series and the two holt-winters bands.

Actually, this appears to do what you're seeking: or it may be useful in giving you a start

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